Climate-Driven Redistribution of Tuna and Its Implications for Cooperation and Conflict in the Western and Central Pacific
Presentation Type
Poster
Presentation Type
Submission
Department
Political Science
Major
Sustainability
Abstract
The Western and Central Pacific Ocean (WCPO) supports the world’s largest tuna fishery and plays a critical part in the economies of many Pacific Island states, where tuna fishing revenues fund essential public services and support livelihoods. Climate change is beginning to disrupt this system, as rising ocean temperatures, shifting currents, and declining oxygen levels are expected to push tuna stocks eastward and away from national Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs). The migration of tuna to international waters will create new hurdles as Pacific Island states will face new quotas and regulations that are likely to have effects on the economy and people's livelihoods. This paper asks: how will these climate-driven shifts in tuna distribution affect political cooperation and conflict related to tuna fishing regulation in the region? To answer this question, the paper draws on a qualitative review of scientific studies, policy reports, and existing fisheries governance literature. It describes how changes in tuna distribution may shift economic incentives, state bargaining power, and the effectiveness of current enforcement treaties and institutions. The analysis finds that declining tuna numbers within some EEZs could increase competition, strain enforcement, and create new tensions related to licensing revenues among states, while also putting pressure on local states to adapt regulatory frameworks and their economy. These findings suggest that more balanced and cooperative governance approaches will be necessary as climate change continues to reshape marine resources - even beyond tuna fisheries.
Faculty Mentor
Professor Vabulas
Funding Source or Research Program
Academic Year Undergraduate Research Initiative
Location
Waves Cafeteria
Start Date
10-4-2026 1:00 PM
End Date
10-4-2026 2:00 PM
Climate-Driven Redistribution of Tuna and Its Implications for Cooperation and Conflict in the Western and Central Pacific
Waves Cafeteria
The Western and Central Pacific Ocean (WCPO) supports the world’s largest tuna fishery and plays a critical part in the economies of many Pacific Island states, where tuna fishing revenues fund essential public services and support livelihoods. Climate change is beginning to disrupt this system, as rising ocean temperatures, shifting currents, and declining oxygen levels are expected to push tuna stocks eastward and away from national Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs). The migration of tuna to international waters will create new hurdles as Pacific Island states will face new quotas and regulations that are likely to have effects on the economy and people's livelihoods. This paper asks: how will these climate-driven shifts in tuna distribution affect political cooperation and conflict related to tuna fishing regulation in the region? To answer this question, the paper draws on a qualitative review of scientific studies, policy reports, and existing fisheries governance literature. It describes how changes in tuna distribution may shift economic incentives, state bargaining power, and the effectiveness of current enforcement treaties and institutions. The analysis finds that declining tuna numbers within some EEZs could increase competition, strain enforcement, and create new tensions related to licensing revenues among states, while also putting pressure on local states to adapt regulatory frameworks and their economy. These findings suggest that more balanced and cooperative governance approaches will be necessary as climate change continues to reshape marine resources - even beyond tuna fisheries.