Investigating the Spatial Effects of Severe Drought on a California Newt Population

Presentation Type

Poster

Keywords

mathematics biology newts drought model Taricha torosa

Department

Mathematics

Major

Mathematics

Abstract

Severe drought in Southern California causes population declines of the California newt (Taricha torosa), an amphibian that is native to the Santa Monica Mountain stream system. Drought limits the space available for newt oviposition because newts prefer to lay their eggs in deep, slow-moving pools of water. We created a mathematical model to investigate the effects of persistent drought on a newt population in Cold Creek, a pristine creek in the Santa Monica Mountain stream system. We built from a previous discrete model that describes California newt life-stages and expanded it to create a spatial compartmental model. We created a transition probability matrix to predict changes in stream segments due to persistent drought. Our model predicts that with ongoing drought we will see continued stream drying, and we forecast the severity of resultant newt population declines in Cold Creek.

Faculty Mentor

Courtney Davis and Timothy Lucas

Funding Source or Research Program

Summer Undergraduate Research in Biology

Location

Waves Cafeteria

Start Date

24-3-2017 2:00 PM

End Date

24-3-2017 3:00 PM

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Mar 24th, 2:00 PM Mar 24th, 3:00 PM

Investigating the Spatial Effects of Severe Drought on a California Newt Population

Waves Cafeteria

Severe drought in Southern California causes population declines of the California newt (Taricha torosa), an amphibian that is native to the Santa Monica Mountain stream system. Drought limits the space available for newt oviposition because newts prefer to lay their eggs in deep, slow-moving pools of water. We created a mathematical model to investigate the effects of persistent drought on a newt population in Cold Creek, a pristine creek in the Santa Monica Mountain stream system. We built from a previous discrete model that describes California newt life-stages and expanded it to create a spatial compartmental model. We created a transition probability matrix to predict changes in stream segments due to persistent drought. Our model predicts that with ongoing drought we will see continued stream drying, and we forecast the severity of resultant newt population declines in Cold Creek.