Character and Time as Sources for Presidential Greatness

Presentation Type

Oral Presentation

Keywords

Skowronek, Presidential Greatness, Ratings, Newman, Davis, Character, Brilliance

Department

Political Science

Major

Political Science

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to an ongoing debate about the presidency: do presidents’ individual traits or historical circumstances make presidents great? We do this by examining how Steven Skowronek’s model of political time and two important individual traits (brilliance and character) affect presidents’ ratings in “presidential greatness” polls. Skowronek argues that six “regimes” make up American political history (Federalist nationalism 1789-1800, Jeffersonian democracy 1800-1828, Jacksonian democracy 1828-1860, Republican nationalism 1860-1932, New Deal liberalism 1932-1980, and Reaganesque conservatism 1980-present). Over time these regimes become unpopular. Presidents can be affiliated with or opposed to the current regime. Skowronek places each president in one of four categories of “political time” based on whether the regime is popular or not and whether the president is affiliated with or opposed to the regime. He argues that a president’s place in political time largely defines his opportunities and challenges. We test two hypotheses: 1) presidents with higher brilliance and character scores have higher greatness scores and 2) presidents’ place in political time affect their greatness rating. We model presidential greatness scores as a function of presidents’ perceived character and brilliance along with variables stemming from Skowronek’s analysis to this model to test our hypotheses while controlling for other factors known to affect greatness ratings. To do so, we use five surveys of experts who rated presidents. The results support both hypotheses. We find that character and brilliance are both related to greatness scores to a statistically significant degree. In addition, political time strongly predicts presidential greatness. We conclude that ultimately, both the president’s personal traits and place in political time predict presidential greatness in the polls.

Faculty Mentor

Brian Newman

Funding Source or Research Program

Summer Undergraduate Research Program

Presentation Session

Session C

Location

Rockwell Academic Center 170

Start Date

3-4-2015 3:30 PM

End Date

3-4-2015 3:45 PM

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Apr 3rd, 3:30 PM Apr 3rd, 3:45 PM

Character and Time as Sources for Presidential Greatness

Rockwell Academic Center 170

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to an ongoing debate about the presidency: do presidents’ individual traits or historical circumstances make presidents great? We do this by examining how Steven Skowronek’s model of political time and two important individual traits (brilliance and character) affect presidents’ ratings in “presidential greatness” polls. Skowronek argues that six “regimes” make up American political history (Federalist nationalism 1789-1800, Jeffersonian democracy 1800-1828, Jacksonian democracy 1828-1860, Republican nationalism 1860-1932, New Deal liberalism 1932-1980, and Reaganesque conservatism 1980-present). Over time these regimes become unpopular. Presidents can be affiliated with or opposed to the current regime. Skowronek places each president in one of four categories of “political time” based on whether the regime is popular or not and whether the president is affiliated with or opposed to the regime. He argues that a president’s place in political time largely defines his opportunities and challenges. We test two hypotheses: 1) presidents with higher brilliance and character scores have higher greatness scores and 2) presidents’ place in political time affect their greatness rating. We model presidential greatness scores as a function of presidents’ perceived character and brilliance along with variables stemming from Skowronek’s analysis to this model to test our hypotheses while controlling for other factors known to affect greatness ratings. To do so, we use five surveys of experts who rated presidents. The results support both hypotheses. We find that character and brilliance are both related to greatness scores to a statistically significant degree. In addition, political time strongly predicts presidential greatness. We conclude that ultimately, both the president’s personal traits and place in political time predict presidential greatness in the polls.