Climate scientists set the bar of proof too high
Department(s)
Caruso School of Law
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
4-1-2021
Keywords
Extreme event attribution, Legal contexts of climate attribution, Policy and evidence, Science communication, Standards of proof
Abstract
Standards of proof for attributing real world events/damage to global warming should be the same as in clinical or environmental lawsuits, argue Lloyd et al. The central question that we raise is effective communication. How can climate scientists best and effectively communicate their findings to crucial non-expert audiences, including public policy makers and civil society? To address this question, we look at the mismatch between what courts require and what climate scientists are setting as a bar of proof. Our first point is that scientists typically demand too much of themselves in terms of evidence, in comparison with the level of evidence required in a legal, regulatory, or public policy context. Our second point is to recommend that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recommend more prominently the use of the category “more likely than not” as a level of proof in their reports, as this corresponds to the standard of proof most frequently required in civil court rooms. This has also implications for public policy and the public communication of climate evidence.
Publication Title
Climatic Change
ISSN
01650009
E-ISSN
15731480
Volume
165
Issue
3-4
DOI
10.1007/s10584-021-03061-9
Recommended Citation
Lloyd, Elisabeth A.; Oreskes, Naomi; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; and Larson, Edward J., "Climate scientists set the bar of proof too high" (2021). Pepperdine University, All Faculty Open Access Publications. Paper 3.
https://digitalcommons.pepperdine.edu/faculty_pubs/3