Abstract
Iraq's fragile state faces threats from multiple factors including Iranian influence within the Popular Mobilization Forces and Iraq's political system, the decentralized nature of the PMF, and potential violence surrounding critical national elections. Formed during the 2014 ISIS war, the PMF is an umbrella organization consisting of various militias broadly aligned with Grand Ayatollah Sistani, Muqtada al-Sadr, or former Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei. Since October 7, 2023, Iranian-backed PMF militias operating under the Islamic Resistance of Iraq have conducted attacks against Israeli and American targets, threatening to drag Iraq into regional conflict. PMF-affiliated parties achieved considerable success in the 2025 national elections, while Sadr's boycott worsened persistent low voter turnout and public pessimism toward reform. The fall of Assad's Syria and the ongoing regional conflict pose additional risks to Iraqi stability. These dynamics nonetheless present Iraqi policymakers with opportunities to challenge Iranian influence and act as a regional conciliator. This paper offers three policy recommendations: incentivize non-Iranian-backed PMF militias to form a national guard force; isolate Iranian-backed militias in the political and security sectors; and bolster Iraq's Counter-Terrorism Service while maintaining its integrity.
Recommended Citation
Thomas, Alexis. (2026). "The Monopoly of Violence in Iraq: The Emergence of the Islamic Resistance of Iraq, Mobilization of the PMF, and the Future of State Stability." Pepperdine Policy Review: Vol. 18, Article 2. Available at: https://digitalcommons.pepperdine.edu/ppr/vol18/iss1/2
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