Market-Based Prediction Models as an Aid to Litigation Strategy and Settlement Negotiations
In his recent book, “Litigation is War,” Fredrick L. Whitmer suggests effective advocacy in litigation mirrors many tactics common in strategic military preparation. On a battlefield or in a courtroom, quantifying the likelihood of uncertainties that may hinder or facilitate a particular line of attack will provide an advantage to the party holding such information. Consider this scenario: you are a plaintiff bringing suit against a corporation for ten million dollars, your trial starts in two weeks, the corporation has offered to settle for one million dollars, but you believe that you deserve more; do you accept? There is no easy answer, but there is a question that any lawyer or client in that situation should reflect upon: How can I acquire the most accurate, cost-effective data about the viability and value of a particular case or cause of action? This article suggests a market designed to translate investments in various outcomes into predictions about the likelihood of various outcomes of a given situation. This article will identify some of the major unmet needs of litigants today. It will explain how prediction markets, a new method of collecting research used for predicting outcomes in a wide variety of areas, can be crafted to assist clients in their litigation strategy and settlement negotiations. Finally, it will provide a sample market based on the uncertainties of an actual case.
Market-Based Prediction Models as an Aid to Litigation Strategy and Settlement Negotiations,
2 J. Bus. Entrepreneurship & L.
Available at: https://digitalcommons.pepperdine.edu/jbel/vol2/iss1/8