Presidential Approval, Salience, War, Security, Economy
George W. Bush's presidency provides a fertile ground to further develop the standard model of presidential approval. In contrast to the vast presidential approval literature, early studies of Bush conclude economic conditions had no effect once the war in Iraq began. Rather than require a fundamental rethinking of presidential approval theories, we argue that approval models must take into account issue salience. When a factor is salient, it has a stronger effect. During the Bush presidency, with considerable over-time variation in the salience of the economy, terrorism, and the war in Iraq, each, in turn, powerfully affected Bush's approval.
Presidential Studies Quarterly
Ostrom, Charles W. Jr.; Kraitzman, Alon P.; Newman, Brian; and Abramson, Paul R., "Terror, War, and the Economy in George W. Bush’s Approval Ratings: The Importance of Salience in Presidential Approval" (2017). Pepperdine University, Faculty Open Access Publications. Paper 192.