Investigating the Spatial Effects of Severe Drought on a California Newt Population
Presentation Type
Poster
Keywords
mathematics biology newts drought model Taricha torosa
Department
Mathematics
Major
Mathematics
Abstract
Severe drought in Southern California causes population declines of the California newt (Taricha torosa), an amphibian that is native to the Santa Monica Mountain stream system. Drought limits the space available for newt oviposition because newts prefer to lay their eggs in deep, slow-moving pools of water. We created a mathematical model to investigate the effects of persistent drought on a newt population in Cold Creek, a pristine creek in the Santa Monica Mountain stream system. We built from a previous discrete model that describes California newt life-stages and expanded it to create a spatial compartmental model. We created a transition probability matrix to predict changes in stream segments due to persistent drought. Our model predicts that with ongoing drought we will see continued stream drying, and we forecast the severity of resultant newt population declines in Cold Creek.
Faculty Mentor
Courtney Davis and Timothy Lucas
Funding Source or Research Program
Summer Undergraduate Research in Biology
Location
Waves Cafeteria
Start Date
24-3-2017 2:00 PM
End Date
24-3-2017 3:00 PM
Investigating the Spatial Effects of Severe Drought on a California Newt Population
Waves Cafeteria
Severe drought in Southern California causes population declines of the California newt (Taricha torosa), an amphibian that is native to the Santa Monica Mountain stream system. Drought limits the space available for newt oviposition because newts prefer to lay their eggs in deep, slow-moving pools of water. We created a mathematical model to investigate the effects of persistent drought on a newt population in Cold Creek, a pristine creek in the Santa Monica Mountain stream system. We built from a previous discrete model that describes California newt life-stages and expanded it to create a spatial compartmental model. We created a transition probability matrix to predict changes in stream segments due to persistent drought. Our model predicts that with ongoing drought we will see continued stream drying, and we forecast the severity of resultant newt population declines in Cold Creek.